Operational climate forecasts and crop monitoring at the large scale
An El Nino -Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasting system predicts ENSO state with a year's lead-time. Analogue years (similar years in the past to the present) selected are used for long lead seasonal forecasts from early in the year. New climate indices are used in an opportunistic drought warning system for Australia (other regions affected by ENSO).
Crop yield forecasting
The STIN crop forecasting model is utilized to produce national maps of soil moisture, yield rankings and potential yields. Crop yield forecasts can utilise seasonal forecasts or an average climate.
Trends in crop yields and water use efficiencies across the Australian grainbelt are mapped and drivers of these trends determined.
Climate change analysis
Keynote presentations can be given on how the climate has changed since 2000, what has caused these
changes and how crop yields and trends have been affected by this.
AgroMeteorology Australia (AMA) exists to provide operational climate forecasts and crop monitoring at the large scale. Global scale El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts and regional climate forecasts are combined with an Australian crop modelling system to give integrated crop yield assessments. Measures of crop productivity and water use efficiency go hand in hand with climate change analysis and the collation of industry good datasets. This work is therefore underpinned by strategic Agro-climatic modelling that combines trends in climate variables, agronomic data, climate variability and technological advances. There are four major areas of modelling and analysis that have been developed over 20 years in the Department of Agriculture, Western Australia (DAFWA), and the Australian Export Grains Innovation Centre (AEGIC) which are now utilized by AMA.
Australian Climate and Winter Crop Outlook
Climate Outlooks are produced that summarise global indicators related to ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation), the Indian Ocean Dipole and local Australian climate indicators. Based on a series of long-lead indicators forecasts are produced of the ENSO State (La Niña, La Niña) and the likely May-October rainfall prospects. This service begins in early November in the year before and is then updated in early February with a median rainfall outlook map for the winter growing season. This rainfall forecast will stay in place unless a dramatic change in indicators occurs. An update at the beginning of seeding will include the first integrated national shire yield ranking maps utilising soil moisture and the seasonal outlook. Monthly updates will occur from there to early October. The service will therefore include:
November (year before) – National summer rainfall (November-April) outlook and the first rainfall outlook for the following winter growing season for Australia based on analogue years (similar years in the past to the present).
February – first median rainfall outlook map from May to October based on ESS analogues.
April to October – a monthly update of climate indicators, analogue years, and all Australian crop yield rankings based on the STIN crop model. Soil moisture ranking maps between April and June.
Cost $700 +$70 GST = $770 annual subscription (single organisation/farming enterprise), or part-year $350 +$35 GST (within May to October) Note: 2020/21 subscription now available - bonus offer receive September and October 2020 Climate-Crop outlooks for no extra cost). Payment with PayPal below, or email for an invoice for EFT (see bottom of website). The outlook will be emailed shortly after payment is made. No GST for overseas buyers.
The standard product has State and national wheat yield (and production) forecasts from the STIN model from early June through to November - extra cost $300+$30 GST, i.e. cost = $770+$330= $1100 before 1st May, $700 thereafter. Note 2020/21 subscription now available - bonus offer receive September-October 2020 production forecasts for no extra cost. Email requests (see below) are required for this option as PayPal payments can only be made for the standard product.
Individual Crop Ranking Maps (assuming average rainfall for rest of season)
Overview of crop yield rankings compared to the previous 100 years are summarised in STIN yield ranking maps and can be purchased on the web for Australia. Maps will be downloaded at the point of payment. No GST for overseas buyers.
Cost of $100 (+ $10 GST) - $110/national map. (Note: For publications that disseminate maps outside an organisation a national map is $600 (+ $60 GST) = $660). Requests for maps for sub-regions/States can be made by email.
How Have AMA Forecasts Gone?
A brief summary of long-lead forecasts issued at the beginning of the year by Dr David Stephens in DAFWA, AEGIC and AMA. An additional file is now added which shows how the 2019 climate and crop yield forecasts went at a State and national scale.
How Have Australian Rainfall Zones Changed?
Seasonal rainfall zones are defined by the ratio of summer to winter rainfall. These zones have shifted southward since 2000 with summer rain generally going up and winter rain generally declining.
If you would like more information about these services please contact David Stephens on 0403001318 or email firstname.lastname@example.org.
Crop yield trends and changes in water use efficiencies for Australian cropping
Climate change affecting Australian cropping
Climate and yield risk assessment spatially across the Australian grainbelt
For any inquiries, questions or commendations, please call +61 (0)403 001 318 or fill out the following form
3 Baron Hay Court
South Perth WA 6151