Agricultural climate analysis, forecasting and monitoring.
Agromet provides climate forecasting and crop modelling across four key areas.
Seasonal Forecast Subscription
Australian seasonal forecasting and crop prospects
A detailed assessment of the climate factors influencing Australian agriculture, together with regular updates as the season develops.
Maps – Wheat Yield Rankings
Regional crop monitoring and wheat yield rankings
Agromet uses rainfall information from more than 1,000 stations to monitor regional soil moisture and produce national wheat yield ranking maps.
Grain Productivity Changes
Understanding changes in grain productivity
Consultancies on grain productivity and yield changes across Australian agricultural regions, including historical productivity and water use efficiency.
Farm Portfolio Risk
Understanding agricultural risk across a portfolio
Spreadsheet of regional crop production and variability with a mix of properties spread across the grain belt, i.e. agricultural portfolio risk assessment.
Meet the Weather Man.
Agricultural meteorologist and climate forecasting specialist
Dr David Stephens has more than 40 years' research experience in agricultural meteorology that has focussed on climate forecasting and crop modelling systems of yields. At Murdoch University, David completed an undergraduate degree in Atmospheric Physics, and an honours and PhD in regional crop yield forecasting. His career includes 16 years with the WA Department of Agriculture and four years as Manager Supply Dynamics at AEGIC.
A new company
In 2016 David went private and formed Agrometeorology Australia with all the IP of all his operational forecasting systems transferred to the new company. He has continued his research into better climate forecasting indices and has provided consultancies on crop productivity gains across Australia.
The biggest discovery in a 40-year research career
For 40 years, David had been looking for indices that could help explain extremes in Australian rainfall. The availability of unique datasets at different levels of the atmosphere, combined with discussions with farmers and pilots, led to a major discovery – a
Lead-Index. In 2024, an unexpected drought had affected crops in south-eastern Australia as almost all models had predicted a wet spring due to La Nina conditions and a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Farmers lost money planting more pulses and adding lots of N Fertilizer. Early in that year the lead-index fell rapidly as farmers were preparing to plant crops. A similar less dramatic situation occurred in 2025. This “jump in understanding” has led to regional indices which helps explain regional rainfall patterns.
Three lead-times
David has discovered indices that predict Australian rainfall at various lead-times and scales:
Long-lead rain predictor
explains half the variance in weighted Australian grain belt rainfall in October/November in the previous year, i.e. 6-7 months lead time at a national scale.
Lead-Index
shows an emerging rainfall patterns is developing with a 1–5 month lead-time for ten regions across the Australian grain belt.
Now-Time Index
provides a confirmation that a climate extreme is occurring.
Regional forecasting
Australian regions do not all respond to climate influences in the same way. The indicators that help explain rainfall in one part of the country may behave differently in another. Agromet therefore has developed regional forecasting indices to reflect the climate influences specific to each area. In south-west Western Australia, for example, rainfall patterns are more strongly influenced by the Circumpolar Vortex over Antarctica. This means a different combination of indicators is needed to understand and forecast conditions in the region. This regional approach recognises that Australian rainfall cannot always be understood through broad national indicators alone.
From research to real outcomes
David combines established climate information with his own research and regional forecasting indices to build a clearer picture of developing conditions.
His work is focused on improving understanding of Australia's regional climate patterns and what they may mean for agriculture.
